New psychology research shows people consistently underestimate how often things go wrong across society

April 22, 2026 - 02:55

New psychological research reveals a pervasive cognitive bias: people consistently and significantly underestimate how often things go wrong across society. Termed the "failure gap," this blind spot means individuals believe negative outcomes—from project delays and business closures to medical errors and policy setbacks—are far less common than they actually are.

The study, involving multiple experiments, found this underestimation to be robust across various domains. People assume others experience more success and fewer failures than is the case. Researchers attribute this gap primarily to a visibility problem. In both news media and social networks, successes are loudly celebrated and shared, while failures are often hidden, ignored, or quickly forgotten. This creates a distorted social reality where failure seems like the rare exception rather than a frequent part of life.

This systematic bias has real-world consequences. It can skew personal decision-making, as individuals may embark on ventures without an accurate sense of risk. It also fuels social comparison, where people measure their own struggles against the perceived, and inflated, successes of others, potentially harming mental well-being. The findings suggest that a more balanced public discourse, which normalizes discussing setbacks, could lead to better-informed and more resilient communities.